UPDATE: UBC economist says election result unlikely to shift after absentee ballots counted

Correction of BC Elections transcription error means neither NDP or BC Liberal likely to flip seats

This story has been updated to reflect the correction of a transcription error by BC Elections.

A UBC economist says there’s only a 10 per cent chance that absentee ballots and recounts turn a minority legislature into a BC Liberal majority.

Kevin Milligan used past changes between preliminary vote counts and final vote counts to calculate that there is a 62.4 per cent chance that the current result holds, with the BC Liberals winning 43 ridings, the NDP holding 41 and the Greens keeping three seats and the balance of power.

While the NDP only claimed the Courtenay-Comox riding by nine votes, Milligan found that – because absentee ballots tend to favour the NDP – it’s unlikely the riding will flip for the BC Liberals.

Milligan’s original analysis on Thursday suggested it was actually more likely that the riding of Coquitlam-Burke Mountain would flip from the BC Liberals to the NDP. But that was based on preliminary results that turned out to be incorrect. BC Elections said Friday morning that the gap in votes in that riding was actually larger than originally thought.

Milligan posted a series of tweets Thursday, then wrote a blog post summarizing his findings.


@ty_olsen
tolsen@abbynews.com

Just Posted

Political tensions continue in Ucluelet First Nation

“The citizens continue to be concerned with the level of transparency and accountability.”

Kayakers concerned by new reservation system in Broken Group Islands

Pacific Rim National Park Reserve upsets paddlers with new process.

Scammers hit Ucluelet

Fraudulent phone calls proved costly for at least two Ucluelet locals last week.

West Coast leaders to discuss potential ice rink today

Proposed multiplex would be located between Tofino and Ucluelet

Locals hash out Tofino’s proposed cannabis ban

“I hope to raise my family in a place that doesn’t stigmatize perfectly good people.”

WATCH: Vancouver Island man catches dashcam video of near head-on crash

Video shows oncoming van cross over centre line

How to keep local news visible in your Facebook feed

Facebook has changed the news feed to emphasize personal connections. You might see less news.

VIDEO: Protesters rally for affordable housing ahead of B.C. budget

Residents call on province to keep locals housed

#Metoo movement causing confusion in many men, fear of missteps with women: experts

Being painted by the same sweeping brush as those alleged to have mistreated women has angered men

Liberals to dig deeper, aim higher on gender equality in 2018 federal budget

Finance Minister Bill Morneau said the budget would include measures to boost women in the workforce

Vancouver Island’s Teal Harle finishes fifth in Olympic Men’s Slopestyle skiing

‘I’ve definitely surpassed every expectation I had for the Games’ – Harle

Body of missing skier found

Man’s truck found in Revelstoke Mountain Resort’s parking lot covered in ‘several days’ snow’

B.C. VIEWS: Subsidy supercluster settles in B.C.

Ottawa, Victoria add to their overlapping ‘innovation’ budgets

Most Read